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Ver la versión completa : Thailand in crisis



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6th December 2008, 09:38
Thailand has found out the hard way that economic development is no substitute for strong government institutions.
Last night the victorious yellow-shirted protesters of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) were preparing to end their week-long occupation of Bangkok's two airports, after achieving their key demand: a court ruling that forced the country's latest Prime Minister from office over election fraud.
But while flights can now resume so that an estimated 250,000 tourists and transit passengers can at last leave the country, there is no end in sight to this crisis.
The emergency has further polarised an already dangerously divided country and many now fear a descent into civil war.
Thailand has experienced rapid economic development and growth in tourism since 1997 but also a steadily widening gap between rich and poor.
Thaksin Shinawatra, the telecoms billionaire turned politician, became Prime Minister in 2001 on a platform of cheap health care and micro-credit schemes that appealed to the rural poor and uneducated.
His party retains widespread popular support. However, the capital's affluent middle class bitterly opposed what they saw as his authoritarianism, and accused him of undermining the country's revered monarch, King Bhumibol, who is 81 on Friday.
Mr Thaksin was removed in a coup two years ago and yesterday his brother-in-law, the country's latest prime minister, was also forced out.
This leaves a political vacuum at a time when Thailand needs a government that can work out how the country is to survive the credit crunch. Instead, the economy is crumbling and tourism could take years to recover from images of western tourists holed up in hotels at their own expense and desperate to leave.
Despite its name, the PAD, backed by thuggish elements, wants to restrict democracy to enable the country's affluent ruling elite to return to power.
They claim the current electoral system is vulnerable to vote-buying, a charge reflected in yesterday's ruling.
The Thaksinites counter that the courts are rigged.
Instead of struggling on under a new proxy, there should be fresh elections under the scrutiny of international observers.

And instead of seeking to restrict the franchise, the PAD must field candidates capable of winning a democratic election by offering to share the fruits of Thailand's economic growth with all the country's people.
Thailand also needs an independent judiciary and a proper separation of powers.
One possible outcome is a military coup, with the army backing a quasi-civilian government. This would bring only temporary stability.
The risk is that the yellow-shirted PAD would simply be replaced by Thaksin Shinawatra's red-clad supporters and the havoc of recent days would return.